Charles Nenner of the Charles Nenner Research Center uses some unorthodox methods to predict the markets. In a nutshell, he ignores what most people think of as fundamental news and uses a variety of cycle indicators to forecast market movements, often to a specific date. Nenner’s view is that market cycles repeat, and the key is finding points in time when long- and short-term cycles sync up to give a major buy or sell signal. Sounds crazy, right? Well, there must be some method to the madness because the former market-timing consultant at Goldman Sachs has made some stellar calls, including: - Forecasting a Dow peak of 14,500 in the summer of 2006.
- Calling the market top in October 2007.
- Forecasting in late 2007 a “deflation scare” would occur in 2008, something he says isn’t over yet.
- In February 2009, predicted a major rally would start “in a few weeks” and could take the S&P as high as 1000.
So what is Nenner saying now? After some short-term gains to coincide with month-end window dressing, Nenner predicts the stock market will turn south, possibly sharply.
“I’m still worried we could test the lows,” he says, suggesting a break of S&P 850 would make that grim outcome a near certainty.
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SPX rally could be stalled after we hit 947 resistance on monthly charts. A monthly close above this level would negate this and could lead to move higher to 1000+ SPX. At this time, we recommend cash heavy or bearish positions. This is also seen on VIX chart as it has held longer term uptrend line (posted to members few days ago). 
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June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time the company’s 152-year history to hedge against further asset declines. “Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in Brooklyn. “In the Depression, gold did very, very well.” Northwestern Mutual has accumulated about $400 million in gold, and Zore said the price could double or even rise fivefold if the economy continues to weaken. Gold gained 10 percent last month, the most since November. The commodity has more than tripled since 2000, rising for eight straight years. Gold futures for August delivery slipped $4.80 to $975.50 at 4:03 p.m. in New York. “The downside risk is limited, but the upside is large,” Zore said. “We have stocks in our portfolio that lost 95 percent.” Gold “is not going down to $90.” |
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